Welcome to “Misgav Mideast Horizons”, a podcast by the Misgav Institute for National Security, Israel’s leading national security policy center. This podcast is designed for anyone around the world who wants to understand the quickly-changing realities of the Middle East, beyond the headlines, slogans and noise.
The Misgav Institute is dedicated to strengthening Israel’s national security, fostering regional cooperation, and building international alliances for a Middle East future of security, stability, peace, and prosperity.
Your co-hosts, Lahav Harkov, a Senior Fellow at the Misgav Institute and senior political correspondent for Jewish Insider, and Asher Fredman, the Executive Director of the Misgav Institute, commit to delivering fresh insights and clear, concise analysis of the Middle East every week. They aim to provide listeners with essential understanding of critical developments, as well as exciting trends and opportunities in this rapidly-evolving region. Each episode will feature an exciting guest offering a unique perspective on current events and future trends, including newsmakers, agenda setters, and those “in the room where it happens”.
This special inaugural episode features Ambassador Robert O’Brien, who served as the United States National Security Advisor under President Trump from 2019 to 2021. Ambassador O’Brien continues to advise President Trump as a member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, and serves as chairman of American Global Strategies LLC. He was one of the key architects of the historic Abraham Accords, oversaw the maximum pressure campaign on Iran, bolstered America’s cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies, and played a central role in enhancing U.S. military strength. Prior to this role, he was the U.S. Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, involved in the return of over 25 American hostages and detainees.
In this episode, they delve into recent critical developments, including:
- The Israel-Iran Ceasefire and its Aftermath: The ceasefire announced by President Trump was immediately violated by Iran with missile strikes, prompting an Israeli response. President Trump then intervened, instructing Israel to “turn the planes around,” causing confusion in Jerusalem. A symbolic Israeli strike on an Iranian radar installation followed, leaving the stability of the ceasefire uncertain.
- Military Operations and Setbacks to Iran: Before the ceasefire, Israel conducted significant strikes on Iranian regime sites, including Evin Prison, and killed hundreds of militants from the Basij internal security forces. Israel also claims to have destroyed most of Iran’s missile launchers. The podcast also touches on the effectiveness of American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, noting that Fordow, buried under a mountain, required U.S. bunker-buster bombs and B2 bombers that Israel lacked. The assessment is that the bombing was effective.
- Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program: While Iran’s nuclear program has been significantly set back, its ballistic missile program also poses an existential threat to Israel. Ambassador O’Brien emphasizes that Iran’s ballistic missile program “can’t happen” and that any agreement must address this threat as well, as it’s “part and parcel” of the overall nuclear program.
- Trump’s Foreign Policy Principles: Ambassador O’Brien outlines President Trump’s approach as “America First,” but clarifies that “America First” does not mean “America Alone”. According to O’Brien, the President’s approachemphasizes close work with allies like Israel. The second principle is “Peace Through Strength,” a concept borrowed from Ronald Reagan, where military and economic strength is used to deter adversaries and ultimately achieve peace. Examples include eliminating ISIS leadership and Qassem Soleimani, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and providing advanced weapons to the UAE – all of which contributed to the historic Abraham Accords.
- Impact on Abraham Accords: The 12-day conflict’s impact on the Abraham Accords is discussed. Ambassador O’Brien notes that the Gulf Arab reaction has been “mild” and that they are likely pleased by the weakening of the Iranian regime. He highlights the durability of the Accords, as evidenced by UAE airlines continuing to fly to Israel after October 7th when others ceased.
- Expansion of the Abraham Accords: Ambassador O’Brien sees Saudi Arabia as the “next country” to potentially join the accords, and even suggests Qatar might eventually join if Iran becomes less malicious. He believes Qatar, despite its difficult geopolitical position, would prefer to align with the free world, including the U.S., Israel, and the GCC.
- The Hostage Dilemma in Gaza: Drawing on his experience as Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, Ambassador O’Brien advises that the best chance for hostage survival, especially with non-state actors like Hamas, is a military rescue. He stresses the need for increased military and diplomatic pressure on Hamas to narrow their window for holding hostages.
- Regime Change in Iran: The discussion touches on whether an opportunity was missed to empower the Iranian people. Ambassador O’Brien states that democracy and freedom cannot be imposed by force; it must come from within the Iranian people, though he acknowledges the regime’s brutality. He discusses the internal debate within the “MAGA” movement regarding intervention versus restraint in Iran, and Trump’s shift from talk of “make Iran great again” to preferring “stability”.
- Economic Opportunities in the Middle East: Ambassador O’Brien sees immense economic potential by combining the resources and experience of the Gulf States (and potentially Iran, if it ceases terrorism) with the innovation and scientific expertise of Israel. He envisions the Middle East becoming a major “economic engine” for Asia and Europe.
- Personal Faith and Service: Ambassador O’Brien reflects on how his Latter-day Saint faith, and Western civilization values rooted in Jerusalem, Athens, and Rome, have influenced his roles and decisions. He notes a natural compassion and shared history between Latter-day Saints and Jews, emphasizing the importance of standing with Israel.
The episode concludes with an optimistic outlook on the significant changes in the Middle East since October 7th, 2023, including the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, the degradation of Hezbollah, and Hamas’s path to defeat.
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